Don't forget to set your clocks ahead Saturday night before bed as we gain an hour of daylight.  For me, then is when spring starts. It's nice being able to be outdoors in the evenings with light.

Another sign of spring this upcoming week will be the mild temperatures. We'll be in the low 60s with a shot at 70 towards the end of work week. It's warm enough for the Stonebrooke Golf Course to open next week, much to the delight of golfers. The only chance of precip is Monday morning in the form of rain. Other than, get out and enjoy this weather. It will be a good opportunity to complete spring chores, or participating in outdoor activities conducive of dry weather.

Welcome to the meteorological start to spring!  Can you feel it yet?  Well, maybe not so much this week.  I had to borrow Paul Douglas' name for the last weather maker for this week's blog title.  Wet slop was the best way to describe what remained on surfaces in and around Shakopee Wednesday morning.  Rain fell most of the Tuesday before switching over to snow by about 4:30 a.m Wednesday.  With freezing rain pelting my bedroom windows overnight, I didn't get much sleep, so I listened for when it stopped which would signal the changeover to all snow.  By 8 a.m. Wednesday, snow in Shakopee totalled 1.5 inches with 1.35 inches of total water accumulated.  With temperatures hovering around freezing, it made some surfaces slippery.  Slick roads and unplowed streets did not cause Shakopee schools to delay or cancel school.  Snow totals drastically increased from the southern Twin Cities metro to the northwest side.  From one inch of snow in Jordan to 8.5 inches of Andover in Anoka County.  Here is a map showing snow totals across the Twin Cities:





Unusual to see pure rain in February this far north.  One interesting tidbit of information is that this was the most liquid we've seen in the area since 1.42 inches of rain fell on August 16, 2011.  One advantage of this precipitation is that it assists in the drought situation.  Any rain or snow makes a difference.

With the snow cutoff right over the metro, along with weather models jumping around the storm track constantly, this was a difficult storm to forecast where and how much snow we would end up receiving.  Overnight models into Wednesday shifted the low pressure center south, more cold air was drawn into the northern part of system to allow rain to change to snow much sooner than earlier anticipated.  We just can't seem to buy a storm around home as storms skip or barely brush the area.  Maybe that is due in part to a loyal reader of The WeatherDesk thinking spring, and somehow the message is being communicated to Mother Nature? :)

If you don't like this week's weather, you'll sure enjoy next week.  More snow chances come into play Friday and Saturday, before the weather pattern quiets and temperatures climb into the 40s and possibly 50 degrees by next Tuesday.  Early indications are that snow totals will be light heading into the weekend, but I'll be keeping an eye on this as I'm sure the models will be shifting around a bit before locking in on a solution.

Last week I mentioned seeing chances of snow this week, and that happened to be true.  On Monday, a wet snow fell across the area.  Shakopee picked up 1.5 inches fo snow, with 2.7 inches officially reported in the Twin Cities.  Rain occurred at around 6 PM in Scott County and Shakopee before transitioning to snow thereafter, so that kept snow totals down compared to the rest of the metro.  The biggest story out of this weather maker was "plowgate".  Plow crews managed to clear the roads despite not receiving the full two inches required to activate the plows.  As snow comes close to the threshold to trigger the plows, things can get a little tricky.  As I mentioned above, snow amounts can vary from location to location.  Location A in Shakopee could be over two inches of snow, while Location B may be slightly under that amount.  Being a snow observer for the National Weather Service, I can see the controversy as snow closes in on the two inch mark.  It's one of the consequences I didn't consider when I signed up for this public service.  Over the last couple days, I decided to continue taking snow measurements and making no change in how I report it.  The snow amounts are what they are.  Measuring snow has never been an exact science. Blowing and drifting snow can create variation, but we just do the best job we can under the conditions.

More snow returns Sunday and again on Tuesday.  Earlier this week, it appeared the Twin Cities would take the brunt of a major winter storm with possible blizzard conditions.  Over the last couple days, the forecast models have shifted the heaviest snow across the northern sections of the state.  The southern metro may see one to two inches of snow the latter half of Sunday into Monday morning.



A significant snow may impact us on Tuesday.  With how erratic the forecast models have been lately, I'm not going to place snow amounts on this weather system, but it appears to be capable of dropping significant snows across our area.



Looks like winter will stick around for at least a week.  Stay tuned on the latest if you have any upcoming travel plans!

After a long stretch of not mentioning the word "snow" often, it appears the weather pattern will be changing to a wet one over the next week.  The transition from dry to snow has already begun.  Just recently, the Shakopee area picked up about an inch of snow on Monday night.  Heading into next week, we will see a couple chances of snow in the forecast.  The first round will come Monday night into Tuesday, and then again on Thursday.

By the middle of next week, the forecast models hint at up to a couple inches of snow across Scott County and the rest of the Twin Cities metro area.  The Twin Cities will receive a glancing blow as the majority of the snow falls across western Minnesota.  The system will exit the area Tuesday.  Temperatures will be hovering near the freezing point, so it's all going to depend on timing on whether we see snow, rain, or some sort of mix.





A more potent storm system comes into play by Thursday, and could drop a few inches of snow across the Twin Cities.  The European forecast model, which is a favorite among local weatherpeople for it's accuracy during the winter months, depicts a broad area of heavier snow in the Twin Cities and places towards the west.  This system will need watching, but it could be the first chance of significant snow (four inches or more) in quite awhile.  Again, temperatures will be mild for this time of the year, and snow amounts will depend on arrival time of precipitation.





For those of you not fans of snow, daylight savings time is 24 days away.  For me, this usually signals the start of spring as we gain an additional hour and see addtional sunlight during the day.  While the mild weather has been nice, I have to admit it's a bit depressing running outside at night in pitch darkness. Speaking of mild weather, the Climate Prediction Center has early projections of March being above normal.



Despite the snow chances next week, it will be just a minor interruption as it appears spring is here to stay!

Another weekly blog, and another week of drama-free weather.  The common theme.  If you are looking for drama, then I suggest turning towards your favorite reality television show, or following the developments in Scott County here.  Of note this week is the temporary end of nice weather this month as temperatures nosedive into the single digits by Friday morning across the Twin Cities, lasting through the weekend.  By the start of the work week, temperatures will rebound towards normal.  The weather models do not lock into significant snow for the next week, so I will not mention it in this space.  Had this been last year, I would be talking about digging out from the latest snowstorm.  The WeatherDesk curse continues...

The dry weather for our area is expected to linger through April, according to NOAA.  Their drought outlook indicates conditions persisting or worsening across Minnesota.  This does not bode well for farmers, and will increase the fire danger as we head towards spring.  On the flip side, it is highly unlikely Minnesota River flooding will occur as water levels are quite low and are able to absorb any snowmelt at this time.



The warmth this season has been historic.  We are experiencing the second warmest winter (December to February) on record.  This seems to correlate with the second lowest seasonal snow total ever so far.  If you happened to blink, you missed the outdoor ice rinks being open.  After a late start to skating, the City of Shakopee is closing the rinks on February 21.  I was able to get one skating session in.

With spring approaching, this is where I make my annual pitch to get people involved in the community.  If you are a weather lover, then I highly recommend taking a storm spotter class through Metro Skywarn.  The National Weather Service uses radar to detect storms, but it takes a trained spotter to report back what is actually happening on the ground that radar cannot always see (i.e. hail, funnel clouds, tornadoes).

Here are a few classes located close to Shakopee:

Saturday, March 3rd, 2012 from 9:00 A.M. to 1:00 P.M. - Open Circle Church, 2400 Highland Drive, Burnsville.

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012 from 6:00 P.M. to 10:00 P.M. - Carver County Government Center, 600 East 4th Street, Chaska.

Saturday, May 19th, 2012 from 9:00 A.M. to 1:00 P.M. - Open Circle Church, 2400 Highland Drive, Burnsville.

If you would like to participate in additional emergency services, Scott County CERT offers training in basic first-aid, basic fire suppression, and common emergency protocols.  Their weather training is aided by Metro Skywarn.

As we head into February, not much changes when it comes to the weather.  We're looking at above normal temperatures for the next seven days, with no significant snow in the forecast.  We've only had 14.9 inches of snow officially this year, and we could quite possibly finish the season in the top ten for least amount of snowfall at the rate we are going.  As an outdoor lover, this winter has confused me very much.  Do I get the winter toys out, or put my running shoes on?  The city skating rinks opened up recently, but I don't think they will see much more usage before the official start to spring as good ice is hard to find these days.  Skiiers and snowshowers are looking for any patch of snow they can find.  The popular Brainerd Jaycees ice fishing tournament had to be pushed back a few weeks because the ice on Gull Lake was not deep enough to safely use.  It's been another memorable winter in a row, but for all the opposite reasons this season.

While Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Groundhog Day, meaning six more weeks of winter, one could argue we've been in a spring-like pattern for quite some time across Minnesota.  87 percent of the days in January saw high temperatures at or above normal as recorded at Flying Cloud Airport. Incredible!  As it has been described by some weather media members, it's "March-uary"!  These temperatures are typical for what we see in March.  We are running nearly a full two months ahead of schedule.  This could also mean an early start to the severe thunderstorm season.  That's if the moisture gates open from the Gulf of Mexico.  Moisture has been lacking this winter for any major snowstorms from occuring.



According to the Climate Prediction Center, this month is going to be mild across much of the United States.  Who brought out the blow torch?  It's shaping up to be an extra month of spring.



Forget winter, we jumped from fall right into spring! Another sign spring is around the corner? Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers will be reporting in Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training on February 18th.  "Old Man Winter" has certainly been in hibernation this season.

We finally see an active weather pattern over these next seven days.  The Twin Cities, and much of greater Minnesota is in line to experience it’s first subzero temperatures by Thursday morning as Arctic air moves in behind an area of low pressure centered around the Great Lakes.  At 11:53 PM on Wednesday the official temperature in the Twin Cities was -1°F.  We normally see the first below zero reading in the Twin Cities on December 9th, so we are running over a month behind on winter.  The latest below zero reading in any given winter season is January 18th, which we tied this year with the midnight reading.  There has also never been a winter that has not dipped below zero at least twice in the Twin Cities.

Along with the polar plunge, snow makes it's return to the area.  We have only seen about a foot of it total this season.  Winter activities have largely been put off by the lack of snow for ski areas, and thin ice from the warmer temperatures on area lakes as halted ice fishing and skating.  The first round of snow comes Friday.  Southern portions of the state could see a half foot out of this and up to two inches for the Twin Cities.  Sunday sees more snow - another inch or so.  The last round in the next week comes Wednesday, and this one could be the most significant of the bunch for our area.  It's still early, but at least of couple inches of snow is possible.

 

 

Looking at Friday's snow a bit more in-depth, the weather models brush the Twin Cities on the edge of the storm system affecting southern Minnesota:



 



  

As you can see, we get a glancing blow.  With the cold temperatures, this system will be an efficient snow maker, so just a little bit of precipitable water in the atmosphere will yield higher snow totals.  Earlier I tweeted about an inch to an inch and half.  Based on the latest data, I going to bump up the high side to two inches for snow.  There is still one more day and any track deviation will change the totals.  If this impulse shifts north, we'll see more snow, and lesser with southward movement.

With the chilly air mass, we will see ice build on area lakes by the weekend.  I will leave you this week with some guidelines on ice safety.  No ice is ever 100% safe, but you can increase your chances of avoiding danger by using these rules of thumb for winter sports.

Welcome to  another edition of The WeatherDesk!     Each week this blog brings to you weather information and insight that  impacts Shakopee  and surrounding  communities.

 

The local buzz lately has been not about the weather, but rather the proposed Vikings stadium in Shakopee.  I have stated my thoughts on this topic elsewhere, and will not re-state them here.  Getting back to the weather, winter returned to our area midweek after temperatures hung around in the 30s and 40s during the majority of the month thus far.  Wind chills dipped below zero for the first time in quite some time, and temperatures only climbed into the teens.  Normal temperatures this time of the year are in the low 20s, so this is quite typical this time of the year, despite the occassional cries of "It's cold".

Will this cold snap last?  No, but it will be hanging around for the rest of the month.  Currently, we are in intermission from the extended fall season, but the warmth returns for the weekend with temperatures reaching the 30s by the weekend.  However, reality sets in next week with similar conditions that we are experiencing now, or perhaps slightly colder.  It still a ways out, and things can and do change with the forecast.

 



So why is the weather pattern changing to a colder one?  One theory is that the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is forecasted to trend negative.  The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic and affects weather patterns across the eastern half of the United States.  A negative trend means that westerlies are suppressed and the weather turns colder.



This will be the story thought the reminder of January, but it won't be bitterly cold, just normal.  A couple rounds of snow will affect us in the next seven days.  No significant storms in sight, but snow will fly Saturday and again next Wednesday into Thursday.  Looking at perhaps a half inch of snow - enough to slow down the commutes on the roads.

 

 

Winter is here to stay through January, minus the grand snow events!

Welcome to another edition of The WeatherDesk!    Each week this blog brings to you weather information and insight that impacts Shakopee  and surrounding communities.

 

Hopefully you are having a good start to the new year.  To kick of 2012, we are looking at quiet weather following the New Year's Eve rain and snowfall event that brought around 1.3 inches of snow to the southwest Twin Cities suburbs.  Our seasonal total for snow now stands at 10.3 inches.  This time last year as of January 5th, we had 45 inches of snow already.  For the start of the year, we normally should have 21.4 inches of snow.  Through the middle of next week, the weather is looking uneventful.  After that, the weather pattern becomes a bit more unsettled and we could see more snow on the way to whiten things up a bit.

Tomorrow's warm temperatures will take care of the remainder of the snow on the ground from New Year's Eve.  Highs will climb into the middle 40s, and we have a shot at breaking the record for the day of 47 degrees set back in 1885, over 125 years ago!  I am forecasting a temperature of 47 degrees for the downtowns, and 44 for Shakopee, Eden Prairie, and Chanhassen.  Daytime temperatures should peak at or above 30 degrees through Tuesday of next week before a cooldown takes place.  Perhaps we could be looking at 40s for the start of the next work week.  If you are looking for cross country skiing or snowmobiling, I do not have good news for you other than to be patient.  We still have February and March to get through.

I will leave you this week with some weather trivia that you can use to impress your friends and family (or bore them to tears).



True or false.  March is the snowiest month in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.





False.  January receives the most snow, but March comes in second.



Weather updates are always available on Twitter @ShakopeeWeather

Welcome to   another edition of The WeatherDesk!   Each  week this blog  brings to you weather information and  insight that  impacts Shakopee  and  surrounding  communities.

The final WeatherDesk post of 2011.  Hope your holidays have been going well for you.  I'm still recovering from a sinus infection from over the weekend.  Yeah, the timing was not great, but what can you do.  Just have to make the best of it.

What a year it was for weather.  Before we get into reviewing the year, here are some recent weather headlines:

Monday saw the mercury reach 52 degrees in the Twin Cities, which was a new record for the day.  The previous record was 51 degrees set in 1936.  We have been in the 50s before in December.  In 1999, we set a record high temperature of 53 degrees for December 29th.

The DNR is warning us about fire danger.  Yes, in December, folks.  Unbelievable.  Sometimes I have to ask myself which season is it again. Winter, spring, or fall?  Not every year do you see green grass in some places before Christmas.

Several week weather disturbances will move through over the next week, bringing with it the chance for an inch or so of snow.  Temperatures will remain mild for this time of the year through Sunday, then we see a cooldown for the majority of next week, before a warm up the following week.

Here are top five weather or climate events across Minnesota.  Since it was relatively quiet across Shakopee and Scott County as a whole, I decided to present a wider view of the weather across the state.  Of note during the year in Shakopee was another episode of spring flooding.

  

As 2011 wraps up, it was another historic year in weather filled with extremes.  Some of the year’s events include tornado outbreaks across the southern United States, and closer to home, a top five snowfall for the 2010-11 season, humid summer, highest peak wind gust recorded in state history, a tornado in Minneapolis, and record fall drought.  In reflection on 2011, here are my top 5 weather events for the year.  The top events as voted on by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group are here.

#5 Minneapolis tornado

Note: While this event was listed number one by Minnesota Climatology Working Group, this list presented here was weighted on the significance of unusual events that are often historic.  While this tornado impacted a lot of people in a populated area, the damage was relatively minor compared to tornado outbreaks across the central and southern United States during the spring.

The second tornado to hit Minneapolis in three years occurred on May 22th, and would be later classified by the National Weather Service in Chanhassen as a high-end EF-1. The tornado killed one person and injured 48 while it was on the ground for 14.25 miles from St. Louis Park to Blaine. The heaviest concentration of damage was confined to north Minneapolis.  The majority of the damage was downed trees atop buildings and vehicles, however the twister did demolish garages, sheds, and rooftops at during peak strength.

The supercell that produced the twister was part of a larger storm extending from northeastern Oklahoma, and through the Mississippi Valley to northern Wisconsin. There were 56 reports of tornadoes across the United States this day with the strongest one affecting Joplin, Missouri. 162 people lost their lives, and thousands were displaced from their homes as large sections of the city were leveled.

Additional reading:

• May 22, 2011: Tornadoes in Eastern Minnesota, including North Minneapolis - National Weather Service, Twin Cities

#4 Humid summer

319 hours of dew point temperatures of 70 degrees or higher was recorded at the Twin Cities International Airport this summer, and a record was set for dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher with 103 hours.  On July 19th, the dew point temperature reached 82 degrees at the Twin Cities, breaking the old record of 81 that was set on July 30, 1999.  In addition, the highest dew point temperature recorded in Minnesota was set this day at the Moorhead Airport with 88 degrees, breaking the old record of 86 that was set at both Pipestone and St. James on July 23, 2005.

Shortly after 7 PM on July 19th, I recorded a heat index reading of nearly 118°F at my home in Shakopee.  Temperatures were into the 90s, with dew points hovering around 80 degrees.

#3 Record wind speed in Donaldson

The first day of September and the meteorological autumn season brought severe thunderstorm winds across northwestern Minnesota as temperatures climbed into the 90s with dew points into the 70s.  An automated station a mile west of Donaldson in Kittson County recorded a wind gust of 121 MPH during the early morning hours.  This measurement was substantiated by damages inflicted in the surrounding landscape by such strong winds.  Two large commercial grade steel bins were torn out from the local grain elevator, and the significant tree damage in the area matched winds of that extreme range.  The National Weather Service, Minnesota State Climatology Office, and National Climatic Data Center tested the data collected from this station and later confirmed 121 MPH reading - the strongest wind speed ever measured in Minnesota.  The old state record wind speed was 117 MPH from a thunderstorm near Alexandria, MN back on July 19, 1983.  While wind speeds of this magnitude, and higher have likely occurred in Minnesota in the past, there was not any instrumentation that survived to record the wind speed.  According to Dr. Mark Seeley, the wind in Donaldson was measured by an R.M. Young Wind Monitor (aero vane), a mechanical, propeller type instrument. The actual instrument is said to have a measurement range up to 224 MPH.

#2 Record fall drought

1.36 inches of liquid precipitation fell from September 1 to November 30 in the Twin Cities, which made it the driest autumn since records began in 1871.  The entire state saw below normal precipitation for the season.  On a larger scale, the lack of rain during the fall continued the ongoing drought across much of Minnesota since late summer.  Sections of southern and western Minnesota are depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor as falling in “moderate” to “severe” drought categories.

#1 Fourth snowiest snow season on record

The top event of the year goes to snow.  The snowy trend carried into 2011 from December 2010 as we saw roughly the same amount of snow in the Twin Cities during the first four months of this year as we did in November and December of the previous year. 

By the time the snow ended for the season, MSP recorded the fourth highest total on record with 86.6 inches.

February snows on the 20th and 21st shattered more climatological records.  We witnessed the largest single snowstorm for the month in the Twin Cities since 1891 with an official total of 13.8 inches. A foot was recorded at my home in Shakopee.

So there you have it, the top five weather events of 2011.  Do you agree with my rankings?  How would you rank the top five events from Minnesota?  Share your thoughts below.  I would also like to thank everyone that stopped by this blog during the year.  There is one person I need to thank in particular, and that is Kristin Holtz.  She asked me about doing a featured blog in regards to the weather, so I owe this opportunity to her, and the rest of the Shakopee Valley News staff.  Hopefully you all learned a little bit about the weather this year, and look forward to your support in 2012!  May you have a safe New Year celebration.